Australian electricity prices in 2027: the dates already locked in

Most Australian households get one real price change a year, around 1 July, and a lot of noise in between. In 2026 that change was mostly downwards for default prices, which surprised people used to rises. For 2027 some dates are already fixed, and the rest will not be known until the draft decisions next autumn. This piece starts with the bill itself, then the calendar.

The four slices of your bill

Network charges. The poles and wires are run by regulated monopolies, and the AER approves what they can charge. In Victoria’s 2026-27 default price, network costs were $603 a year for a typical household, about 38% of the bill, and 2% lower than the year before.

Wholesale costs. What your retailer pays for power from generators, bought through the National Electricity Market and hedged with contracts. It is the part that moves most with weather, gas prices and plant outages. In Victoria’s 2026-27 default offer, wholesale costs came down along with network and environmental costs.

Environmental costs. The cost of renewable energy certificates and state schemes. In Victoria they fell about 46% for 2026-27 and are now about 4% of the default bill.

Retail costs and margin. Billing, customer service, acquisition. These rose with inflation in Victoria for 2026-27.

The safety net. The AER sets the Default Market Offer for NSW, south-east Queensland and South Australia, and the ESC sets the Victorian Default Offer. Both are published in May and apply from 1 July. They cap standing offers and are the reference price every market offer is compared with, including on our comparison page. Energy Made Easy says about 8.3% of households in DMO regions are on a standing offer.

The 2027 calendar so far

• 1 January 2027: the battery STC factor under the Cheaper Home Batteries Program drops from 6.8 to 5.7, and to 5.2 from 1 July 2027. Smaller discounts on new batteries.
• 1 March 2027: Victoria’s proposed rule changes start if the ESC confirms them in December. They would confirm that discounts, rebates and credits offered with no end date must be honoured for the whole contract, require clearer information before you disconnect gas, and clarify protections for separately metered EV, battery and solar setups.
• 30 March 2027: the AEMC’s new rule for customers in payment difficulty applies, with at least two contact channels and disconnection treated as a last resort.
• 1 April 2027: electric cars costing over $75,000 move from a full FBT exemption to a 25% discount under the Budget changes.
• 1 July 2027: new DMO and VDO prices, and the start of the 20% domestic gas reservation for LNG exporters announced in the 2026-27 Budget.

The open questions

The size of the July 2027 change. Based on recent years, drafts come in March and final decisions in May. Until then any forecast is a guess, and we will not print one.

Gas. Gas-fired power stations still set the wholesale electricity price at some times, especially on cold, still winter evenings. The conflict in the Middle East pushed LNG and fuel prices up in 2026. The domestic reservation from July 2027 is meant to steady supply, but its effect on prices is not yet known. For gas customers, the AEMC’s gas network reforms, due for a final decision in December 2026, could mean modest increases for people who keep using gas.

Networks. Network charges are set for five-year periods and adjusted each year.

Help with bills. The 2026-27 Budget’s cost-of-living package is built on tax cuts and fuel excise relief; it contains no new household electricity bill rebate. State concessions continue, but each state sets its own and can change them in its budget, so check yours before winter.

Weather and the grid. A hot summer, a cold winter or a big plant outage can move wholesale prices within weeks. More wind, solar and batteries have been pushing the other way.

Fixed or variable: how Australian plans work

Many Australian market plans are not fixed-price: the retailer can change rates with notice. In Victoria retailers can raise prices only once a year and must give at least five days’ notice before a change affects your bill. What you can lock in is a benefit period: a discount or credit for a set time. Read what happens when it ends.

If you are offered a genuinely fixed rate, compare it with the current DMO or VDO for your area and check the exit terms. In NSW, early exit fees are banned except in narrow cases, which lowers the risk of trying a plan.

Four moments worth a fresh comparison

1. When the price change notice arrives, usually just before 1 July. This is the one moment everyone’s price moves.
2. When a benefit period ends. Your discount disappears and the plan quietly gets dearer.
3. When your household changes: solar, a battery, an EV, a new baby, working from home. Each changes which tariff suits you.
4. When the reference price comparison on your bill looks poor. In Victoria, read the best offer message.

Before the July 2027 reset

1. Find your plan name and check how far it sits above or below the reference price.
2. Run a comparison on your real usage, or use Energy Made Easy or Victorian Energy Compare.
3. If you are thinking about a battery, note that the STC factor steps down on 1 January 2027 and the installation date counts.
4. If you are thinking about a novated EV lease over $75,000, the arrangement start date before 1 April 2027 matters.
5. Set a free contract alert so you look again when the July 2027 prices arrive, and use our bill guide to check the new rates.