US electricity prices in 2027: forecasts, auctions and when to lock in

Nobody can tell you your exact electricity rate for 2027, and anyone who claims to is guessing. What can be said is which parts of the bill are already locked in, which are set by a regulator on a known date, and which are open. That is enough to decide whether to fix now or wait.

Delivery, supply, riders: three layers, three decision makers

An American power bill has three layers.

Delivery. Poles, wires, meters and outage repair. Your local utility charges for this at rates approved by the state commission in rate cases. You cannot shop for it anywhere. These charges have been the fastest-moving part of bills: the advocacy group PowerLines counted nearly $31 billion in rate increase requests in 2025, twice the 2024 total. Many of those cases are decided in 2026 and 2027.

Supply. The energy itself. In most states the utility buys it and passes the cost through at a regulated rate. In choice states you can buy it from a licensed supplier instead, and the utility’s default rate becomes your benchmark, usually called the price to compare. In Texas competitive areas, the retail provider sets the whole price and delivery charges pass through.

Taxes and riders. State and local taxes, plus surcharges for efficiency programs, storm costs and similar items. These are set by law or by the commission and change on their own schedule.

Numbers already on the table

The EIA’s September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook expects the national average residential price to reach 18.6¢/kWh in 2027, up from 18.2¢ in 2026 and 17.3¢ in 2025. That is a slower rise than the jump between 2025 and 2026.

In the PJM region (Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Maryland and the ComEd area of Illinois), the capacity price for the delivery year starting June 2027 was settled at $333.44 per MW-day. The next year, from June 2028, cleared at the $325 cap in July 2026. Capacity is one part of wholesale costs, and those feed into default supply rates when utilities procure power. Both years sit at high levels; neither points to relief.

In Illinois, the supply part of the price to compare is set through May 2027. ComEd’s falls from 10.399¢ to 10.103¢/kWh on October 1, 2026. Ameren’s goes from 11.326¢ to 10.441¢ for the first 800 kWh a month and 8.262¢ beyond that. ComEd’s transmission charge changes again in January 2027; the new figure is not yet published.

In New Jersey, the February 2026 auction produced small changes from June 1, 2026, from a $3.23 monthly decrease for PSE&G customers to a $2.23 increase for JCP&L. The next auction, expected in early 2027, sets rates from June 1, 2027. Until then the 2027 number is unknown.

Gas, data centers and rate cases

Natural gas. It still sets the wholesale power price in many hours. The EIA forecasts Henry Hub at $3.28/MMBtu in 2027, slightly below 2026, with storage ending October 2026 at 5% above the five-year average. But LNG exports are forecast to grow from 17.4 to 18.6 billion cubic feet a day in 2027, which ties US prices a little more to world demand. A cold winter would change the picture quickly.

Demand. The EIA expects commercial electricity sales, which include data centers, to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. How much of the grid cost for that growth ends up on household bills is being fought over in Texas, in PJM and in several state commissions right now.

Rate cases. Every pending case in your state can move delivery charges. The utility files, the commission decides, usually months later. Your utility’s website and the commission’s docket list what is pending.

Weather. Hot summers and cold snaps raise wholesale prices. Variable-rate plans feel that first; default rates later.

Fixed or variable for 2027?

In Texas and the other choice states, a fixed-rate plan keeps the supply price the same for every billing period of the term. Texas rules allow narrow exceptions, mainly when regulated delivery charges change. That makes a fixed plan a hedge against the supply part only.

A fixed plan makes sense when:

• the offer beats your current price to compare, or your current Texas rate, at your real usage;
• the term ends at a time of year when you can easily compare again, not in the middle of summer;
• the early termination fee is small, or the contract is already inside a fee-free window (the last 14 days in Texas, the last 30 days in Pennsylvania).

A variable plan makes sense only if you watch the price every month and are ready to leave. Many households who took variable plans in Texas before Winter Storm Uri in 2021 learned how fast that can go wrong.

A five-step checklist for this fall

1. Find your current supply rate and contract end date on your bill.
2. Check your utility’s price to compare and when it next changes (October 1 in Illinois, June 1 in New Jersey).
3. Compare fixed offers for 12 to 24 months. If none beats the default rate, stay on it.
4. Set a contract alert for 30 days before your end date. Texas providers must send you written notices, the last one at least 30 days before the end date, but a reminder you control is safer.
5. Cut usage where it is cheap to do so. Our appliance calculator shows which devices cost the most.

The bill is going up in most of the country in 2027, though more slowly than it did this year. You can do most about the supply rate and your usage, and you can compare again whenever a contract ends.