What is moving US electricity prices in September 2026

The EIA expects the average American household to pay 18.2¢ per kWh for electricity in 2026, up from 17.3¢ in 2025, and more again in 2027. The national figure hides big gaps between states, and even bigger ones between what drives them. Here are the events of the past few months that explain where your bill is heading, in date order, and what each one means at home.

July 14: PJM capacity auction hits the cap again

PJM runs the grid across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Maryland and the ComEd area of Illinois. Its auction for the 2028/2029 delivery year cleared at $325 per MW-day, the price cap approved by federal regulators. The previous auction, for 2027/2028, cleared at $333.44. This time PJM bought 6,831 MW less than its reliability target, the first time the whole region has fallen short in consecutive auctions. PJM’s chief executive said demand is growing faster than supply, and PJM’s own notice points to the addition of large data center loads.

Capacity costs are one piece of wholesale costs, which are one piece of your bill. They reach households through the default supply rate (the price to compare) from June of each delivery year. With the cap holding prices near current levels, expect the capacity part to stay high rather than jump again, but do not expect relief.

August 3: Texas pauses data center grid connections

Governor Greg Abbott directed ERCOT to halt new data center connections to the Texas grid pending an audit of tax incentives, power and water use, and ownership. On September 21 he widened it, telling the state environmental agency to stop issuing data center permits too. Utility Dive reports that ERCOT’s queue of large-load requests stands at 474 GW, about 90% of it data centers. On September 19 the PUCT adopted interconnection rules for large loads that softened its March proposal, dropping a planned $50,000-per-MW fee.

Nothing changes on your bill this month. The fight is over who pays for the grid built to serve these loads. Abbott’s line is that data centers “must pay their own way”, and a June directive from his office already asked them to fully fund the grid infrastructure built for them. If that principle holds, it protects household delivery charges. If it softens, households share the bill.

August 28: Texas approves 765-kV transmission lines

The PUCT unanimously approved two 765-kilovolt lines running more than 400 miles from Bosque County to the Permian Basin. A state senator warned that tens of billions of dollars of construction costs across these projects would end up socialized in residential bills.

Transmission costs land in the delivery (TDU) charges on Texas bills, which you pay whichever retail provider you choose. They rise over years, not months. When you compare plans, check whether the price includes delivery charges, and remember that a fixed plan in Texas can still change when those regulated charges change.

September 9: the EIA’s latest outlook

The Energy Information Administration expects the national residential average to reach 18.2¢/kWh for 2026 and 18.6¢ for 2027, up from 17.3¢ in 2025. Electricity sales are forecast at record levels, 4,135 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,211 billion in 2027, driven by data centers and manufacturing. Natural gas, the fuel that most often sets wholesale power prices, looks calmer: Henry Hub is forecast at $3.43/MMBtu in 2026 and $3.28 in 2027, and storage should end October 5% above the five-year average.

In short, the pressure on bills comes more from grid spending and demand than from fuel. That makes long fixed supply contracts less of a gamble on gas prices and more a question of whether the offer beats your utility’s default rate.

September 16 and 17: a September heat alert in PJM

PJM issued a Maximum Generation Alert for September 17, with forecast peak load of 133,355 MW, because of unusually warm weather and more than 35,000 MW of generation offline for planned maintenance. Regions to the south and west were hotter still.

Tight days feed into the wholesale prices that set future default rates, and variable-rate plans can reflect them sooner. Pre-cooling in the morning and shifting laundry to the evening on alert days helps both you and the grid.

September 21: gasoline at $4.48

The EIA’s weekly survey put regular gasoline at $4.478 a gallon, against $3.173 a year earlier. The EIA ties the spike to Middle East supply disruptions that lifted Brent crude to an average of $91 a barrel in August, and expects prices to ease through 2027.

This matters little for the electric bill and a lot for the case for an EV. Our EV charging guide runs the per-mile numbers.

Background: rate cases everywhere

Delivery rates are set in rate cases before each state commission. The advocacy group PowerLines counted nearly $31 billion in rate increase requests in 2025, double the 2024 figure, affecting 81 million people. Those decisions are working their way into 2026 and 2027 bills. You cannot shop for delivery, but you can comment in your utility’s rate case, and in choice states you can shop for supply.

Your move this fall

If you live in one of the states where you can choose a supplier, check your current supply rate against the price to compare and compare fixed offers. Everyone else can still cut usage; our guide to lowering your electric bill covers that. If a contract ends soon, set a free contract alert. And for a view of 2027, read our price outlook.